Skip to content
Bending the Curve

Bending the Curve

How medicine got from “there is no treatment” to today’s standard of care, one trial at a time.

Choose a cancer
0%50%100%Schematic, not dataRegistry data

Dashed line: a schematic of how each new kind of treatment lifted the curve; it is not data. Solid line: 5-year relative survival, all cancers combined, by year of diagnosis, United States (SEER 8 registry areas) (People diagnosed with cancer of any site as defined by SEER Cancer Stat Facts, all races and both sexes, in the eight SEER 8 registry areas (Atlanta, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico, San Francisco-Oakland, Seattle-Puget Sound, Utah). Observed values by year of diagnosis, 1975 to 2018. The source page does not state the age range.). Relative survival estimates the share of people expected to survive the effects of their cancer, excluding the risk of dying from other causes. The eight registry areas do not cover the whole United States. The mix of cancers diagnosed may have changed over time, and earlier detection can raise measured survival through lead-time bias and overdiagnosis without changing how long people live. The curve shows what happened, not why. Values are the observed (not modeled) figures for each year of diagnosis. Needs review: the landmarks and figures here are not yet fully confirmed. Source

  1. 1600 BCE

    Oldest cited description of cancer

    The Edwin Smith papyrus, dated to about 1600 BCE, is cited as holding the oldest known description of cancer.

    Source

  2. 400 BCE

    Hippocratic terms for cancer

    The word cancer is credited to Hippocratic physicians, who used karkinos for non-healing swellings and ulcers. Date approximate.

    Source

  3. 1775

    An occupational link is described

    Percivall Pott described scrotal cancer in chimney sweeps, the first cancer linked to an occupational exposure.

    Source

  4. 1846

    Ether anaesthesia enters surgery

    After the first public ether demonstration at Massachusetts General Hospital on 16 October 1846, surgical volume there rose.

    Source

  5. 1894

    Radical mastectomy is described

    Halsted's 1894 report of breast cancer operations at Johns Hopkins described what became known as radical mastectomy.

    Source

  6. 1896

    X-ray treatment of cancer: disputed origins

    Reports date X-ray treatment of cancer to 1896; priority is disputed, and one analysis favours Despeignes of Lyon (July 1896).

    Source

  7. 1941

    Hormonal manipulation in prostate cancer

    In 1941 Huggins and Hodges studied castration, estrogen and androgen injection and serum phosphatases in metastatic prostate cancer.

    Source

  8. 1948

    Temporary remissions in childhood leukemia

    Farber and colleagues described temporary remissions in children with acute leukemia given a folic acid antagonist (aminopterin).

    Source

  9. 1963

    A randomized screening trial begins

    The HIP trial in New York began in December 1963, randomly assigning women aged 40 to 64 to a screening or a control group.

    Source

  10. 2001

    A kinase inhibitor in chronic myeloid leukemia

    In a phase 1 trial after interferon alfa had failed, the BCR-ABL inhibitor STI571 (imatinib) produced complete hematologic responses.

    Source

  11. 2010

    Anti-CTLA-4 antibody improves survival

    In a phase 3 trial in previously treated metastatic melanoma, ipilimumab improved overall survival compared with a gp100 vaccine alone.

    Source

  12. 2014

    Engineered T cells for leukemia

    In pilot trials, CD19-directed CAR T cells produced complete remission in 27 of 30 children and adults with relapsed or refractory ALL.

    Source

In the eight SEER registry areas of the United States, 5-year relative survival for all cancers combined rose from 49.85% for people diagnosed in 1975 to 73.58% for those diagnosed in 2018.

National Cancer Institute, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. SEER Cancer Stat Facts: Cancer of Any Site. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute; 2026. https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/all.html Source

Choose a cancer

BLOOD AND LYMPHURINARY AND MALE REPRODUCTIVEBREASTGYNECOLOGICDIGESTIVE SYSTEMHEAD, NECK AND BRAINCHEST AND LUNGSKINBONE, SOFT TISSUE AND CHILDHOOD TUMOURSAcute myeloid leukaemia (including APL)Bladder cancerBreast cancerCervical cancerChildhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)Chronic lymphocytic leukaemiaChronic myeloid leukemiaColorectal cancerEndometrial cancerGastric and oesophageal cancerGlioblastomaHead and neck cancerHepatocellular carcinomaHodgkin lymphomaKidney cancer (renal cell carcinoma)Lung cancerNon-Hodgkin lymphoma (DLBCL and follicular)MelanomaMultiple myelomaNeuroblastoma and Wilms tumourOvarian cancerPancreatic cancerProstate cancerSarcoma and GISTTesticular germ cell tumorsThyroid cancer

Explore across cancers